Current State of the US Presidential Primary Race
A breakdown of Republicans, Democrats, and a look at how third party candidates affect the 2024 General Election.
The 2024 election is just around the corner, as we just passed the one-year mark. In the next year, we are going to encounter things that we have never seen before. It’s going to get spicy. I’m going to use this opportunity to analyze the 2024 Presidential election, from both sides, by offering some insight into the current state of the race, the candidates, and how the eventual nominees will be affected by third party candidates.
We are going to start with the Democrats. As the Democrat Party continues to cram Joe Biden down our throats, I find it highly unlikely that he will be the Democrat on the ballot next November. However, I do think that they will allow him to win in the primaries, only to replace him during the convention, while making the argument that he is not mentally fit to serve. The party wants Biden to be the one that receives votes from the people because he is a feeble old man, non-threatening, providing a stark contrast between him and the unpredictable, no holds barred campaign style of Donald Trump. However, the Democrat Party oligarchs have their chosen one in mind and they want to assure that party establishment chooses the Democrat nominee, not the Democrat voters, the Democrat Party has shown time and time again that they do not trust their voters to nominate a candidate. For reference, see Hillary in 2016 and the railroading of Bernie Sanders. The Democrat Party does not work for the people anymore, they continue to put up the illusion that the citizenry has a say in their primaries but, it is only smoke and mirrors to keep the Democrat voters docile and compliant. The registered Democrat voters have developed a bad case of Stockholm Syndrome, unfortunately to their detriment. I do want to stress though, that Michelle Obama would probably be a bad move on the Democrats’ part because I don’t think that the Obama’s have the following that they did when he left office. Look at how their contract with Netflix fell apart after their shows bombed. Bombed on Netflix, which is not necessarily a right-wing outfit. You have to assume that there are many leftists that make up their viewership.
Now to the Republican primary race. Trump is ahead of all opposition with a 30-point lead over the current runner up Desantis, in Iowa according to the RCP Average. RCP has Trump up by 27 points over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is usually viewed as a bellwether state that generally selects the eventual nominee. Unless we are down to a two-person race by the time we reach the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, Trump is going to run away with the vote in these early states and have all of the momentum going into Super Tuesday on March 5. We still have a little less than a year and that’s an eternity when it comes to politics and elections. That being said, Trump’s base is solid and that base is going to crawl over hot coals and broken glass to vote for him. This is something that hurts the Democrat Party in the general election because of the lack of enthusiasm for Biden.
Now onto the spoiler candidates and how they are going to affect the general election. Players include, Cornell West, Jill Stein with the Green Party, and RFK Jr. who is polling is averaging around 20%. Cornell West barely moves the needle. Jill Stein of the Green Party, is running as a spoiler after many believe that she cost Hillary the election in 2016 where she ran in 2016 as a Green Party Candidate. RFK Jr. is on another level. The blood that he has running through his veins is a link to political royalty. For many years voters have yearned to cast a vote for the resurrection of Camelot. He is still a Democrat, and some of his policies overtly reflect that. But this Democrat loves America and doesn’t hate the people. He is anti-establishment and forced to run third party after the DNC would not allow him a voice, and denied him the chance to debate Biden. This third-party run has to have Democrat oligarchs changing their drawers on a regular basis. Many classical liberals, that remember the leadership of JFK and the popularity of RFK Sr. will abandon the party establishment in a heartbeat as RFK Jr. is the embodiment of what the Democrat Party used to be. It's going to get crazier as time goes on so grab your popcorn and enjoy the show.